Matching on Generalized Propensity Scores with Continuous Exposures.

In the context of a binary treatment, matching is a well-established approach in causal inference. However, in the context of a continuous treatment or exposure, matching is still underdeveloped. We propose an innovative matching approach to estimate an average causal exposure-response function under the setting of continuous exposures that relies on the generalized propensity score (GPS). Our approach maintains the following attractive features of matching: a) clear separation between the design and the analysis; b) robustness to model misspecification or to the presence of extreme values of the estimated GPS; c) straightforward assessments of covariate balance. We first introduce an assumption of identifiability, called local weak unconfoundedness. Under this assumption and mild smoothness conditions, we provide theoretical guarantees that our proposed matching estimator attains point-wise consistency and asymptotic normality. In simulations, our proposed matching approach outperforms existing methods under settings with model misspecification or in the presence of extreme values of the estimated GPS. We apply our proposed method to estimate the average causal exposure-response function between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality among 68.5 million Medicare enrollees, 2000-2016. We found strong evidence of a harmful effect of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality. Code for the proposed matching approach is provided in the CausalGPS R package, which is available on CRAN and provides a computationally efficient implementation.

Development of a community severance index for urban areas in the United States: A case study in New York City.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Traffic-related exposures, such as air pollution and noise, have a detrimental impact on human health, especially in urban areas. However, there remains a critical research and knowledge gap in understanding the impact of community severance, a measure of the physical separation imposed by road infrastructure and motorized road traffic, limiting access to goods, services, or social connections, breaking down the social fabric and potentially also adversely impacting health. We aimed to robustly quantify a community severance metric in urban settings exemplified by its characterization in New York City (NYC). METHODS: We used geospatial location data and dimensionality reduction techniques to capture NYC community severance variation. We employed principal component pursuit, a pattern recognition algorithm, combined with factor analysis as a novel method to estimate the Community Severance Index. We used public data for the year 2019 at census block group (CBG) level on road infrastructure, road traffic activity, and pedestrian infrastructure. As a demonstrative application of the Community Severance Index, we investigated the association between community severance and traffic collisions, as a proxy for road safety, in 2019 in NYC at CBG level. RESULTS: Our data revealed one multidimensional factor related to community severance explaining 74% of the data variation. In adjusted analyses, traffic collisions in general, and specifically those involving pedestrians or cyclists, were nonlinearly associated with an increasing level of Community Severance Index in NYC. CONCLUSION: We developed a high spatial-resolution Community Severance Index for NYC using data available nationwide, making it feasible for replication in other cities across the United States. Our findings suggest that increases in the Community Severance Index across CBG may be linked to increases in traffic collisions in NYC. The Community Severance Index, which provides a novel traffic-related exposure, may be used to inform equitable urban policies that mitigate health risks and enhance well-being.

Measuring long-term exposure to wildfire PM2.5 in California: Time-varying inequities in environmental burden.

Wildfires have become more frequent and intense due to climate change and outdoor wildfire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations differ from relatively smoothly varying total PM2.5. Thus, we introduced a conceptual model for computing long-term wildfire PM2.5 and assessed disproportionate exposures among marginalized communities. We used monitoring data and statistical techniques to characterize annual wildfire PM2.5 exposure based on intermittent and extreme daily wildfire PM2.5 concentrations in California census tracts (2006 to 2020). Metrics included: 1) weeks with wildfire PM2.5 < 5 µg/m3; 2) days with non-zero wildfire PM2.5; 3) mean wildfire PM2.5 during peak exposure week; 4) smoke waves (≥2 consecutive days with <15 µg/m3 wildfire PM2.5); and 5) mean annual wildfire PM2.5 concentration. We classified tracts by their racial/ethnic composition and CalEnviroScreen (CES) score, an environmental and social vulnerability composite measure. We examined associations of CES and racial/ethnic composition with the wildfire PM2.5 metrics using mixed-effects models. Averaged 2006 to 2020, we detected little difference in exposure by CES score or racial/ethnic composition, except for non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native populations, where a 1-SD increase was associated with higher exposure for 4/5 metrics. CES or racial/ethnic × year interaction term models revealed exposure disparities in some years. Compared to their California-wide representation, the exposed populations of non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native (1.68×, 95% CI: 1.01 to 2.81), white (1.13×, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.32), and multiracial (1.06×, 95% CI: 0.97 to 1.23) people were over-represented from 2006 to 2020. In conclusion, during our study period in California, we detected disproportionate long-term wildfire PM2.5 exposure for several racial/ethnic groups.

An environmental justice analysis of air pollution emissions in the United States from 1970 to 2010.

Over the last decades, air pollution emissions have decreased substantially; however, inequities in air pollution persist. We evaluate county-level racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in emissions changes from six air pollution source sectors (industry [SO2], energy [SO2, NOx], agriculture [NH3], commercial [NOx], residential [particulate organic carbon], and on-road transportation [NOx]) in the contiguous United States during the 40 years following the Clean Air Act (CAA) enactment (1970-2010). We calculate relative emission changes and examine the differential changes given county demographics using hierarchical nested models. The results show racial/ethnic disparities, particularly in the industry and energy generation source sectors. We also find that median family income is a driver of variation in relative emissions changes in all sectors-counties with median family income >$75 K vs. less generally experience larger relative declines in industry, energy, transportation, residential, and commercial-related emissions. Emissions from most air pollution source sectors have, on a national level, decreased following the United States CAA. In this work, we show that the relative reductions in emissions varied across racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups.

Impact of fine particulate matter on latent tuberculosis infection and active tuberculosis in older adults: a population-based multicentre cohort study.

Evidence showed that air pollution was associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis (TB). This study aimed to study the impact of long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) on the acquisition of LTBI and on the risk of subsequent active disease development among rural older adults from a multicentre cohort, which have not yet been investigated to date. A total of 4790 older adults were included in a population-based, multicentre, prospective cohort study (LATENTTB-NSTM) from 2013 to 2018. The level of long-term exposure to PM2.5 for each participant was assessed by aggregating satellite-based estimates. Logistic regression and time-varying Cox proportional hazards models with province-level random intercepts were employed to assess associations of long-term exposures to PM2.5 with the risk of LTBI and subsequent development of active TB, respectively. Out of 4790 participants, 3284 were LTBI-free at baseline, among whom 2806 completed the one-year follow-up and 127 developed newly identified LTBI. No significant associations were identified between PM2.5 and the risk of LTBI. And among 1506 participants with LTBI at baseline, 30 active TB cases were recorded during the 5-year follow-up. Particularly, an increment of 5 µg/m3 in 2-year moving averaged PM2.5 was associated with a 50.6% increased risk of active TB (HR = 1.506, 95% CI: 1.161-1.955). Long-term air pollution might be a neglected risk factor for active TB development from LTBI, especially for those living in developing or less-developed areas where the air quality is poor.

Metabolomic Effects of Folic Acid Supplementation in Adults: Evidence from the FACT Trial.

BACKGROUND: Folic acid (FA) is the oxidized form of folate found in supplements and FA-fortified foods. Most FA is reduced by dihydrofolate reductase to 5-methyltetrahydrofolate (5mTHF); the latter is the form of folate naturally found in foods. Ingestion of FA increases the plasma levels of both 5mTHF and unmetabolized FA (UMFA). Limited information is available on the downstream metabolic effects of FA supplementation, including potential effects associated with UMFA. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the metabolic effects of FA-supplementation, and the associations of plasma 5mTHF and UMFA with the metabolome in FA-naïve Bangladeshi adults. METHODS: Sixty participants were selected from the Folic Acid and Creatine Trial; half received 800 µg FA/day for 12 weeks and half placebo. Plasma metabolome profiles were measured by high-resolution mass spectrometry, including 170 identified metabolites and 26,541 metabolic features. Penalized regression methods were used to assess the associations of targeted metabolites with FA-supplementation, plasma 5mTHF, and plasma UMFA. Pathway analyses were conducted using Mummichog. RESULTS: In penalized models of identified metabolites, FA-supplementation was associated with higher choline. Changes in 5mTHF concentrations were positively associated with metabolites involved in amino acid metabolism (5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, acetylmethionine, creatinine, guanidinoacetate, hydroxyproline/n-acetylalanine) and 2 fatty acids (docosahexaenoic acid and linoleic acid). Changes in 5mTHF concentrations were negatively associated with acetylglutamate, acetyllysine, carnitine, propionyl carnitine, cinnamic acid, homogentisate, arachidonic acid, and nicotine. UMFA concentrations were associated with lower levels of arachidonic acid. Together, metabolites selected across all models were related to lipids, aromatic amino acid metabolism, and the urea cycle. Analyses of nontargeted metabolic features identified additional pathways associated with FA supplementation. CONCLUSION: In addition to the recapitulation of several expected metabolic changes associated with 5mTHF, we observed additional metabolites/pathways associated with FA-supplementation and UMFA. Further studies are needed to confirm these associations and assess their potential implications for human health. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This trial was registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01050556.

Linking Air Pollution Exposure to Blood-Based Metabolic Features in a Community-Based Aging Cohort with and without Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with changes in levels of metabolites measured in the peripheral blood. However, most research has been conducted in ethnically homogenous, young or middle-aged populations. OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the plasma metabolome and long-term exposure to three air pollutants: particulate matter (PM) less than 2.5µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), PM less than 10µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in an ethnically diverse, older population. METHODS: Plasma metabolomic profiles of 107 participants of the Washington Heights and Inwood Community Aging Project in New York City, collected from 1995-2015, including non-Hispanic white, Caribbean Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Black older adults were used. We estimated the association between each metabolic feature and predicted annual mean exposure to the air pollutants using three approaches: 1) A metabolome wide association study framework; 2) Feature selection using elastic net regression; and 3) A multivariate approach using partial-least squares discriminant analysis. RESULTS: 79 features associated with exposure to PM2.5 but none associated with PM10 or NO2. PM2.5 exposure was associated with altered amino acid metabolism, energy production, and oxidative stress response, pathways also associated with Alzheimer's disease. Three metabolites were associated with PM2.5 exposure through all three approaches: cysteinylglycine disulfide, a diglyceride, and a dicarboxylic acid. The relationship between several features and PM2.5 exposure was modified by diet and metabolic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: These relationships uncover the mechanisms through which PM2.5 exposure can lead to altered metabolic outcomes in an older population.

The association between temperature and alcohol- and substance-related disorder hospital visits in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on how temperature increases are associated with hospital visits from alcohol- and substance-related disorders, despite plausible behavioral and physiological pathways. METHODS: In the present study, we implemented a case-crossover design, which controls for seasonal patterns, long-term trends, and non- or slowly-varying confounders, with distributed lag non-linear temperature terms (0-6 days) to estimate associations between daily ZIP Code-level temperature and alcohol- and substance-related disorder hospital visit rates in New York State during 1995-2014. We also examined four substance-related disorder sub-causes (cannabis, cocaine, opioid, sedatives). RESULTS: Here we show that, for alcohol-related disorders, a daily increase in temperature from the daily minimum (-30.1 °C (-22.2 °F)) to the 75th percentile (18.8 °C (65.8 °F)) across 0-6 lag days is associated with a cumulative 24.6% (95%CI,14.6%-34.6%) increase in hospital visit rates, largely driven by increases on the day of and day before hospital visit, with an association larger outside New York City. For substance-related disorders, we find evidence of a positive association at temperatures from the daily minimum (-30.1 °C (-22.2 °F)) to the 50th percentile (10.4 °C (50.7 °F)) (37.7% (95%CI,27.2%-48.2%), but not at higher temperatures. Findings are consistent across age group, sex, and social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: Our work highlights how hospital visits from alcohol- and substance-related disorders are currently impacted by elevated temperatures and could be further affected by rising temperatures resulting from climate change. Enhanced social infrastructure and health system interventions could mitigate these impacts.

We investigated the relationship between temperature and hospital visits related to alcohol and other drugs including cannabis, cocaine, opioids, and sedatives in New York State. We found that higher temperatures resulted in more hospital visits for alcohol. For other drugs, higher temperatures also resulted in more hospital visits but only up to a certain temperature level. Our findings suggest that rising temperatures, including those caused by climate change, may influence hospital visits for alcohol and other drugs, emphasizing the need for appropriate and proportionate social and health interventions, as well as highlighting potential hidden burdens of climate change.

Fine particulate matter composition in American Indian vs. Non-American Indian communities.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure is a known risk factor for numerous adverse health outcomes, with varying estimates of component-specific effects. Populations with compromised health conditions such as diabetes can be more sensitive to the health impacts of air pollution exposure. Recent trends in PM2.5 in primarily American Indian- (AI-) populated areas examined in previous work declined more gradually compared to the declines observed in the rest of the US. To further investigate components contributing to these findings, we compared trends in concentrations of six PM2.5 components in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties over time (2000-2017) in the contiguous US. METHODS: We implemented component-specific linear mixed models to estimate differences in annual county-level concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter, black carbon, and mineral dust from well-validated surface PM2.5 models in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties, using a multi-criteria approach to classify counties as AI- or non-AI-populated. Models adjusted for population density and median household income. We included interaction terms with calendar year to estimate whether concentration differences in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties varied over time. RESULTS: Our final analysis included 3108 counties, with 199 (6.4%) classified as AI-populated. On average across the study period, adjusted concentrations of all six PM2.5 components in AI-populated counties were significantly lower than in non-AI-populated counties. However, component-specific levels in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties varied over time: sulfate and ammonium levels were significantly lower in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties before 2011 but higher after 2011 and nitrate levels were consistently lower in AI-populated counties. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates time trend differences of specific components by AI-populated county type. Notably, decreases in sulfate and ammonium may contribute to steeper declines in total PM2.5 in non-AI vs. AI-populated counties. These findings provide potential directives for additional monitoring and regulations of key emissions sources impacting tribal lands.

Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States.

Knowledge of excess deaths after tropical cyclones is critical to understanding their impacts, directly relevant to policies on preparedness and mitigation. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to 40.7 million U.S. deaths and a comprehensive record of 179 tropical cyclones over 32 years (1988-2019) to estimate short-term all-cause excess deaths. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with 1491 [95% credible interval (CrI): 563, 3206] excess deaths (>99% posterior probability of excess deaths), including 719 [95% CrI: 685, 752] in Orleans Parish, LA (>99% probability). Where posterior probabilities of excess deaths were >95%, there were 3112 [95% CrI: 2451, 3699] total post-hurricane force excess deaths and 15,590 [95% CrI: 12,084, 18,835] post-gale to violent storm force deaths; 83.1% of post-hurricane force and 70.0% of post-gale to violent storm force excess deaths occurred more recently (2004-2019); and 6.2% were in least socially vulnerable counties.

Can traffic-related air pollution trigger myocardial infarction within a few hours of exposure? Identifying hourly hazard periods.

INTRODUCTION: Traffic-related air pollution can trigger myocardial infarction (MI). However, the hourly hazard period of exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a common traffic tracer, for incident MI has not been fully evaluated. Thus, the current hourly US national air quality standard (100 ppb) is based on limited hourly-level effect estimates, which may not adequately protect cardiovascular health. OBJECTIVES: We characterized the hourly hazard period of NO2 exposure for MI in New York state (NYS), USA, from 2000 to 2015. METHODS: For nine cities in NYS, we obtained data on MI hospitalizations from the NYS Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System and hourly NO2 concentrations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System database. We used city-wide exposures and a case-crossover study design with distributed lag non-linear terms to assess the relationship between hourly NO2 concentrations over 24 h and MI, adjusting for hourly temperature and relative humidity. RESULTS: The mean NO2 concentration was 23.2 ppb (standard deviation: 12.6 ppb). In the six hours preceding MI, we found linearly increased risk with increasing NO2 concentrations. At lag hour 0, a 10 ppb increase in NO2 was associated with 0.2 % increased risk of MI (Rate Ratio [RR]: 1.002; 95 % Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.000, 1.004). We estimated a cumulative RR of 1.015 (95 % CI: 1.008, 1.021) for all 24 lag hours per 10 ppb increase in NO2. Lag hours 2-3 had consistently elevated risk ratios in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We found robust associations between hourly NO2 exposure and MI risk at concentrations far lower than current hourly NO2 national standards. Risk of MI was most elevated in the six hours after exposure, consistent with prior studies and experimental work evaluating physiologic responses after acute traffic exposure. Our findings suggest that current hourly standards may be insufficient to protect cardiovascular health.

Cohort Network: A Knowledge Graph toward Data Dissemination and Knowledge-Driven Discovery for Cohort Studies.

Contemporary environmental health sciences draw on large-scale longitudinal studies to understand the impact of environmental exposures and behavior factors on the risk of disease and identify potential underlying mechanisms. In such studies, cohorts of individuals are assembled and followed up over time. Each cohort generates hundreds of publications, which are typically neither coherently organized nor summarized, hence limiting knowledge-driven dissemination. Hence, we propose a Cohort Network, a multilayer knowledge graph approach to extract exposures, outcomes, and their connections. We applied the Cohort Network on 121 peer-reviewed papers published over the past 10 years from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Normative Aging Study (NAS). The Cohort Network visualized connections between exposures and outcomes across different publications and identified key exposures and outcomes, such as air pollution, DNA methylation, and lung function. We demonstrated the utility of the Cohort Network for new hypothesis generation, e.g., identification of potential mediators of exposure-outcome associations. The Cohort Network can be used by investigators to summarize the cohort's research and facilitate knowledge-driven discovery and dissemination.

Applying principal component pursuit to investigate the association between source-specific fine particulate matter and myocardial infarction hospitalizations in New York City.

The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and cardiovascular outcomes is well established. To evaluate whether source-specific PM2.5 is differentially associated with cardiovascular disease in New York City (NYC), we identified PM2.5 sources and examined the association between source-specific PM2.5 exposure and risk of hospitalization for myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: We adapted principal component pursuit (PCP), a dimensionality-reduction technique previously used in computer vision, as a novel pattern recognition method for environmental mixtures to apportion speciated PM2.5 to its sources. We used data from the NY Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System of daily city-wide counts of MI admissions (2007-2015). We examined associations between same-day, lag 1, and lag 2 source-specific PM2.5 exposure and MI admissions in a time-series analysis, using a quasi-Poisson regression model adjusting for potential confounders. Results: We identified four sources of PM2.5 pollution: crustal, salt, traffic, and regional and detected three single-species factors: cadmium, chromium, and barium. In adjusted models, we observed a 0.40% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.21, 1.01%) increase in MI admission rates per 1 µg/m3 increase in traffic PM2.5, a 0.44% (95% CI: -0.04, 0.93%) increase per 1 µg/m3 increase in crustal PM2.5, and a 1.34% (95% CI: -0.46, 3.17%) increase per 1 µg/m3 increase in chromium-related PM2.5, on average. Conclusions: In our NYC study, we identified traffic, crustal dust, and chromium PM2.5 as potentially relevant sources for cardiovascular disease. We also demonstrated the potential utility of PCP as a pattern recognition method for environmental mixtures.

Exploring Relevant Time Windows in the Association Between PM2.5 Exposure and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Case-Control Study in Denmark.

Studies suggest a link between particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but to our knowledge critical exposure windows have not been examined. We performed a case-control study in the Danish population spanning the years 1989-2013. Cases were selected from the Danish National Patient Registry based on International Classification of Diseases codes. Five controls were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registry and matched to a case on vital status, age, and sex. PM2.5 concentration at residential addresses was assigned using monthly predictions from a dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for confounding. We evaluated exposure to averaged PM2.5 concentrations 12-24 months, 2-6 years, and 2-11 years pre-ALS diagnosis; annual lagged exposures up to 11 years prediagnosis; and cumulative associations for exposure in lags 1-5 years and 1-10 years prediagnosis, allowing for varying association estimates by year. We identified 3,983 cases and 19,915 controls. Cumulative exposure to PM2.5 in the period 2-6 years prediagnosis was associated with ALS (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.13). Exposures in the second, third, and fourth years prediagnosis were individually associated with higher odds of ALS (e.g., for lag 1, OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08). Exposure to PM2.5 within 6 years before diagnosis may represent a critical exposure window for ALS.

Widespread Clean Cooking Fuel Scale-Up and under-5 Lower Respiratory Infection Mortality: An Ecological Analysis in Ecuador, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Nationwide household transitions to the use of clean-burning cooking fuels are a promising pathway to reducing under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality, the leading cause of child mortality globally, but such transitions are rare and evidence supporting an association between increased clean fuel use and improved health is limited. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the association between increased primary clean cooking fuel use and under-5 LRI mortality in Ecuador between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: We documented cooking fuel use and cause-coded child mortalities at the canton (county) level in Ecuador from 1990 to 2019 (in four periods, 1988-1992, 1999-2003, 2008-2012, and 2015-2019). We characterized the association between clean fuel use and the rate of under-5 LRI mortalities at the canton level using quasi-Poisson generalized linear and generalized additive models, accounting for potential confounding variables that characterize wealth, urbanization, and child health care and vaccination rates, as well as canton and period fixed effects. We estimated averted under-5 LRI mortalities accrued over 30 y by predicting a counterfactual count of canton-period under-5 LRI mortalities were clean fuel use to not have increased and comparing with predicted canton-period under-5 LRI mortalities from our model and observed data. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of households primarily using a clean cooking fuel increased from 59% to 95%, and under-5 LRI mortality fell from 28 to 7 per 100,000 under-5 population. Canton-level clean fuel use was negatively associated with under-5 LRI mortalities in linear and nonlinear models. The nonlinear association suggested a threshold at approximately 60% clean fuel use, above which there was a negative association. Increases in clean fuel use between 1990 and 2019 were associated with an estimated 7,300 averted under-5 LRI mortalities (95% confidence interval: 2,600, 12,100), accounting for nearly 20% of the declines in under-5 LRI mortality observed in Ecuador over the study period. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that the widespread household transition from using biomass to clean-burning fuels for cooking reduced under-5 LRI mortalities in Ecuador over the last 30 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11016.

Air pollution and decreased bone mineral density among Women's Health Initiative participants.

Background: Osteoporosis heavily affects postmenopausal women and is influenced by environmental exposures. Determining the impact of criteria air pollutants and their mixtures on bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal women is an urgent priority. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study using data from the ethnically diverse Women's Health Initiative Study (WHI) (enrollment, September 1994-December 1998; data analysis, January 2020 to August 2022). We used log-normal, ordinary kriging to estimate daily mean concentrations of PM10, NO, NO2, and SO2 at participants' geocoded addresses (1-, 3-, and 5-year averages before BMD assessments). We measured whole-body, total hip, femoral neck, and lumbar spine BMD at enrollment and follow-up (Y1, Y3, Y6) via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. We estimated associations using multivariable linear and linear mixed-effects models and mixture effects using Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) models. Findings: In cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, mean PM10, NO, NO2, and SO2 averaged over 1, 3, and 5 years before the visit were negatively associated with whole-body, total hip, femoral neck, and lumbar spine BMD. For example, lumbar spine BMD decreased 0.026 (95% CI: 0.016, 0.036) g/cm2/year per a 10% increase in 3-year mean NO2 concentration. BKMR suggested that nitrogen oxides exposure was inversely associated with whole-body and lumbar spine BMD. Interpretation: In this cohort study, higher levels of air pollutants were associated with bone damage, particularly on lumbar spine, among postmenopausal women. These findings highlight nitrogen oxides exposure as a leading contributor to bone loss in postmenopausal women, expanding previous findings of air pollution-related bone damage. Funding: US National Institutes of Health.

Unintended impacts of the Open Streets program on noise complaints in New York City.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, several cities allocated more public spaces for physical activity and recreation instead of road transport through Open Streets. This policy locally reduces traffic and provides experimental testbeds for healthier cities. However, it may also generate unintended impacts. For instance, Open Streets may impact the levels of exposure to environmental noise but there are no studies assessing these unintended impacts. OBJECTIVES: Using noise complaints from New York City (NYC) as a proxy of annoyance caused by environmental noise, we estimated associations at the census tract level between same-day proportion of Open Streets in a census tract and noise complaints in NYC. METHODS: Using data from summer 2019 (pre-implementation) and summer 2021 (post-implementation), we fit regressions to estimate the association between census tract-level proportion of Open Streets and daily noise complaints, with random effects to account for within-tract correlation and natural splines to allow non-linearity in the estimated association. We accounted for temporal trends and other potential confounders, such as population density and poverty rate. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, daily street/sidewalk noise complaints were nonlinearly associated with an increasing proportion of Open Streets. Specifically, compared to the mean proportion of Open Streets in a census tract (0.11%), 5% of Open Streets had a 1.09 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.20) and 10% had a 1.21 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.42) times higher rate of street/sidewalk noise complaints. Our results were robust to the choice of data source for identifying Open Streets. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that Open Streets in NYC may be linked to an increase in street/sidewalk noise complaints. These results highlight the necessity to reinforce urban policies with a careful analysis for potential unintended impacts to optimize and maximize the benefits of these policies.

Metabolomic changes associated with chronic arsenic exposure in a Bangladeshi population.

Chronic exposure to arsenic (As) remains a global public health concern and our understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying the adverse effects of As exposure remains incomplete. Here, we used a high-resolution metabolomics approach to examine how As affects metabolic pathways in humans. We selected 60 non-smoking adults from the Folic Acid and Creatine Trial (FACT). Inorganic (AsIII, AsV) and organic (monomethylarsonous acid [MMAs], dimethylarsinous Acid [DMAs]) As species were measured in blood and urine collected at baseline and at 12 weeks. Plasma metabolome profiles were measured using untargeted high-resolution mass spectrometry. Associations of blood and urinary As with 170 confirmed metabolites and >26,000 untargeted spectral features were modeled using a metabolome-wide association study (MWAS) approach. Models were adjusted for age, sex, visit, and BMI and corrected for false discovery rate (FDR). In the MWAS screening of confirmed metabolites, 17 were associated with ≥1 blood As species (FDR<0.05), including fatty acids, neurotransmitter metabolites, and amino acids. These results were consistent across blood As species and between blood and urine As. Untargeted MWAS identified 423 spectral features associated with ≥1 blood As species. Unlike the confirmed metabolites, untargeted model results were not consistent across As species, with AsV and DMAs showing distinct association patterns. Mummichog pathway analysis revealed 12 enriched metabolic pathways that overlapped with the 17 identified metabolites, including one carbon metabolism, tricarboxylic acid cycle, fatty acid metabolism, and purine metabolism. Exposure to As may affect numerous essential pathways that underlie the well-characterized associations of As with multiple chronic diseases.

Bias Amplification and Variance Inflation in Distributed Lag Models Using Low-Spatial-Resolution Data.

Distributed lag models (DLMs) are often used to estimate lagged associations and identify critical exposure windows. In a simulation study of prenatal nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure and birth weight, we demonstrate that bias amplification and variance inflation can manifest under certain combinations of DLM estimation approaches and time-trend adjustment methods when using low-spatial-resolution exposures with extended lags. Our simulations showed that when using high-spatial-resolution exposure data, any time-trend adjustment method produced low bias and nominal coverage for the distributed lag estimator. When using either low- or no-spatial-resolution exposures, bias due to time trends was amplified for all adjustment methods. Variance inflation was higher in low- or no-spatial-resolution DLMs when using a long-term spline to adjust for seasonality and long-term trends due to concurvity between a distributed lag function and secular function of time. NO2-birth weight analyses in a Massachusetts-based cohort showed that associations were negative for exposures experienced in gestational weeks 15-30 when using high-spatial-resolution DLMs; however, associations were null and positive for DLMs with low- and no-spatial-resolution exposures, respectively, which is likely due to bias amplification. DLM analyses should jointly consider the spatial resolution of exposure data and the parameterizations of the time trend adjustment and lag constraints.

Clean fleets, different streets: evaluating the effect of New York City's clean bus program on changes to estimated ambient air pollution.

BACKGROUND: Motor vehicles, including public transit buses, are a major source of air pollution in New York City (NYC) and worldwide. To address this problem, governments and transit agencies have implemented policies to introduce cleaner vehicles into transit fleets. Beginning in 2000, the Metropolitan Transit Agency began deploying compressed natural gas, hybrid electric, and low-sulfur diesel buses to reduce urban air pollution. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that bus fleet changes incorporating cleaner vehicles would have detectable effects on air pollution concentrations between 2009 and 2014, as measured by the New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS). METHODS: Depot- and route-specific information allowed identification of areas with larger or smaller changes in the proportion of distance traveled by clean buses. Data were assembled for 9670 300 m × 300 m grid cell areas with annual concentration estimates for nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and black carbon (BC) from NYCCAS. Spatial error models adjusted for truck route presence and total traffic volume. RESULTS: While concentrations of all three pollutants declined between 2009 and 2014 even in the 39.7% of cells without bus service, the decline in concentrations of NO and NO2 was greater in areas with more bus service and with higher proportional shifts toward clean buses. Conversely, the decline in BC concentration was slower in areas with more bus service and higher proportional clean bus shifts. SIGNIFICANCE: These results provide evidence that the NYC clean bus program impacted concentrations of air pollution, particularly in reductions of NO2. Further work can investigate the potential impact of these changes on health outcomes in NYC residents. IMPACT STATEMENT: Urban air pollution from diesel-burning buses is an important health exposure. The New York Metropolitan Transit Agency has worked to deploy cleaner buses into their fleet, but the impact of this policy has not been evaluated. Successful reductions in air pollution are critical for public health.